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By
2010, Muslim nations could control 60 percent of the world`s oil production
and, more importantly, 95 percent of the world`s oil exports. |
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THE SECRET: Oil Crunch is
Coming
The genius of our so-called
democracy lies in its stability and predictability. James Madison (1751-1836) is known as
"the father of the U.S. Constitution". [iii][3] MadisonŐs primary
political concern centered on the maintenance of social stability by the
political and social control of competing factions; control by government
itself was a secondary consideration.
With those objectives in mind, the framers crafted an elaborate
political system:
Where "first object of
government" (highest priority) was "the faculties" of
acquiring property. [iv][4] Where the struggle of classes
and passions (e.g., religious conflict) was replaced with the struggle of
interests in the economic sphere. Where the political system was
extremely resistant to change. Where political power was
reserved for a white male minority while projecting the illusion of
self-government to the majority. "By
consciously denying virtually all but a handful of citizens any role in a
governmental structure that, by design, was to be run by an elite of superior
ability (who nonetheless would have to check and balance each other), Madison
left [economic struggle] as the prime avenue for humanity to search for
meaning." [v][5] Nowadays, the terms
"democracy" and "market economy" are often used
interchangeably. Political decisions
in a market economy are stunningly simple: one dollar, one vote. In short, the market economy serves as a
stealth political system to foster rational thought, universal values based
on calculation, and world peace based on self-interest. The market economy succeeds because it satisfies
our hunter/gatherer genetic drives for dominance, sex, food, and material
possessions. One hundred years ago,
fundamentally defective economic theories led to two world wars with millions
killed. Today, the same defective
economic theories are taught to students all over the world and are leading
to a new generation of world wars with billions killed. But that was 1973 and this is
1999 -- twenty-five years later the oil cushion is gone. Muslim nations will soon control virtually
all of the worldŐs oil exports. Since
neither capital nor labor can create energy, the next round of
energy-shortage-induced stagflation will leave central bankers helpless and
they will seek military solutions to their economic problems. It's the
best-kept secret in ENERGY
SOURCES
The market economy burns energy
to make money -- there is no substitute for energy. Although the economy treats energy just like
any other resource, itŐs not like any other resource. Available energy is the precondition for
all resources -- including energy resources. The key to understanding energy
issues is to look at the "energy price" of energy. Energy "sources" that consume
more energy than they produce are called "sinks" and are worthless
as sources of energy. This
thermodynamic law applies no matter how high the "money price" of
energy goes. The market economy receives
almost 80 percent of its energy subsidies from nonrenewable fossil sources:
oil, gas, and coal. They are called
"nonrenewable" because, for all practical purposes, they're not
being made any more. The reason they
are called "fossil" is because they were "produced" by
nature from dead plants and animals over several hundred million years. In the 1950s, oil producers
discovered about fifty barrels of oil for every barrel invested in drilling
and pumping. Today, the figure is only
about five for one. Sometime around
2005, that figure will become one
for one. In other words, even if the price of oil
reaches $500 a barrel, it wouldn't make energy sense to look for new oil in
the The
increasing energy cost of oil sets up a positive feedback loop: since oil is
used directly or indirectly in everything, as the energy costs of oil
increase, the energy costs of everything else increase too -- including other
forms of energy. For example, oil provides
about 50% of the fuel used in coal extraction.[vii][7] Immutable energy laws tell us
that a growing economy must eventually consume more energy than it can
buy. When EUR OIL For many years, geologists and
petroleum engineers have published estimates of how much oil can be recovered
from any given basin. This is known as
"Estimated Ultimately Recoverable" (or EUR) oil. Remarkably, estimates of total worldwide
EUR oil have varied little over the past half century! [viii][8] Forty years ago, geologist M.
King Hubbert developed a method for projecting future oil production and
predicted that oil production in the lower 48 states would peak about
1970. This prediction has proved to be
remarkably accurate. Both total and peak
yields have risen slightly compared to Hubbert's original estimate, but the
timing of the peak and the general downward trend of production were
correct. Hubbert showed that oil
production begins to peak and starts to decline when approximately half of
the EUR oil has been recovered. IHS Energy Group (formerly
Petroconsultants) is the world's leading provider of data and analysis for
oil exploration and production. The
company maintains its headquarters at a custom-built communications center in
In 1995, Petroconsultants
published a report for oil industry insiders ($32,000 per copy) titled WORLD
OIL SUPPLY 1930-2050 which concluded that world oil production could peak as
soon as the year 2000 and decline to half that level by 2025. Large and permanent increases in oil prices
are predicted after the year 2000. [x][10] NO
OIL? NO ECONOMY!
One of the most important
aspects of energy is its "quality".
Different kinds of fuel have different qualities. For example, coal
contains more energy per pound than wood, which makes coal more efficient to
store and transport than wood. Oil has
a higher energy content per unit weight and burns at a higher temperature
than coal; it is easier to transport, and can be used in internal combustion
engines. A diesel locomotive uses only
one-fifth the energy of a coal-powered steam engine to pull the same train. Oil is the highest quality
energy we use, making up about 38 percent of the world energy supply. No other energy source equals oilŐs
intrinsic qualities of extractability, transportability, versatility and
cost. The qualities that enabled oil
to take over from coal as the front-line energy source in the industrialized
world in the middle of this century are as relevant today as they were
then. Oil's many advantages provide
1.3 to 2.45 times more economic value per kilocalorie than coal. [xi][11] Studies show that nothing can
replace oil: "A recent review of
the future prospects of all alternatives has been published. The summary conclusion reached is that
there is no known complete substitute for petroleum in its many and varied
uses."[xii][12] For example, when the
oil's gone, food production will drop to a fraction of todayŐs numbers:
"If the fertilizers, partial irrigation [in part provided by oil
energy], and pesticides were withdrawn, corn yields, for example, would drop
from 130 bushels per acre to about 30 bushels." [xiii][13] RICHARD
DUNCAN: IT'S THE EXPORTS, STUPID! In 1997, Richard Duncan
developed a new model to forecast oil production called the NUMERATE-EMPIRIC
MODEL.[xiv][14] In the course of his
research, "What
if tomorrow Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat met with representatives from
each of the 19 Muslim petroleum exporting countries and proposed an entirely new organization called
the 'Alliance of Muslim Petroleum Exporting Nations' -- 'AMPEC' for short? "This
proposal alone could cause
World stock markets to fall 50% in one day.
And crucially, it could ignite both (1) a World Petroleum War, and (2)
a World Holy War (called a 'Jihad' by Muslims). I view an 'AMPEC shock' as looming likely
because powerful Muslim forces are pushing Mr. Arafat (and others) further
every day." Senator Helms replied that ...President Clinton was
apparently too busy to reply... Although the names and faces
will change, we will certainly see a rerun of 1979 because all Muslim
countries are "authoritarian" political systems and therefore,
inherently unstable: "Only
a handful of the more than four dozen predominantly Muslim countries have
made significant strides toward establishing democratic systems. Among this handful -- including Albania,
Bangladesh, Jordan, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Mali, Pakistan, and Turkey -- not
one has yet achieved full, stable, or secure democracy. And the largest single regional bloc
holding out against the global trend toward political pluralism comprises the
Muslim countries of the Middle East and OIL
EXPORT POTENTIAL A nation's oil "export
potential" is determined by subtracting its oil consumption from its oil
production. For example, in 1998
Most Muslim oil-exporting
nations are experiencing serious cash flow problems and social unrest (e.g., By 2010, Muslim nations could
control 60 percent of the world's oil production and, more importantly, 95
percent of the world's oil exports. In
short, the Muslim exporting nations have Western economies by the throat. THAT
GIANT SUCKING SOUND The |
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THE LAWS
The human species may be seen as having evolved in the service of
entropy, and it cannot be expected to outlast the dense accumulations of energy
that have helped define its niche. Human
beings like to believe they are in control of their destiny, but when the
history of life on Earth is seen in perspective, the evolution of Homo
sapiens is merely a transient episode that acts to redress the planet's
energy balance.
Đ David Price. [xvi][16]
The first law of thermodynamics
(conservation law) states that there can be no creation of matter/energy. The German physicist Helmholtz and the
British physicist Lord Kelvin had explained the principle by the middle of the
19th century. The second law (entropy
law) states that spontaneous processes will increase the disorder (or entropy)
of a system; concentrations of matter tend to disperse, structure tends to
disappear, and order becomes disorder.
Moreover, all physical processes reduce the total available energy.
In 1824, the French physicist N.
L. S. Carnot formulated the second law's concepts while working on "heat
engines". [xvii][17] Lord Kelvin and the German
physicist Clausius eventually formalized Carnot's concepts as the second law of
thermodynamics. Most chemical
engineering, all power plant engineering, internal combustion engineering,
air-conditioning, and low-temperature physics are a few of the fields that owe
their theoretical basis to thermodynamics.
Available energy is the
prerequisite for any economic activity.
For example, lifting 15 kg of rock 5 meters out of the ground requires
735 joules of energy just to overcome gravity -- and the higher the lift, the
greater the minimum energy requirements.[xviii][18] The second law of
thermodynamics places absolute limits the efficiency of the heat engines that
power the global economy. [1][19] A typical auto, bulldozer, truck, or power plant wastes
more than 50 percent of the energy contained in its fuel!
By a hundred years ago, physics
had incorporated the laws of thermodynamics.
Obviously, energy laws that govern the physical world also govern the
economic world. Physical scientists
attempted to point out this crucial fact to economists:
"It is, in fact, the
fate of all kinds of energy of position to be ultimately converted into energy
of motion. The former may be compared to
money in a bank, or capital, the latter to money which we are in the act of
spending ... If we pursue the analogy a step further, we shall see that the
great capitalist is respected because he has the disposal of a great quantity
of energy; and that whether he be nobleman or sovereign, or a general in command,
he is powerful only from having something which enables him to make use of the
services of others. When a man of wealth
pays a laboring man to work for him, he is in truth converting so much of his
energy of position into actual energy...The world of mechanism is not a
manufactory, in which energy is created, but rather a mart, into which we may
bring energy of one kind and change or barter it for an equivalent of another
kind, that suits us better -- but if we come with nothing in hand, with nothing
we will most assuredly return." [Balfour Stewart, 1883] [xix][20]
But economists never understood
the laws of thermodynamics because they evolved to worship the Market God
instead.
THE MARKET
GOD
No
discipline [ except economics ] attempts to make the world act as it thinks the
world should act. But of course what Homo
sapiens does and what Homo economicus should do are often quite
different. That, however, does not make
the basic model wrong, as it would in every other discipline. It just means that actions must be taken to
bend Homo sapiens into conformity with Homo economicus. So, instead of adjusting theory to reality,
reality is adjusted to theory.
-- Lester Thurow. [xx][21]
The
human mind evolved to believe in gods... Acceptance of the supernatural
conveyed a great advantage throughout prehistory, when the brain was
evolving. Thus it is in sharp contrast
to [science] which was developed as a product of the modern age and is not
underwritten by genetic algorithms.
-- E.O. Wilson. [xxi][22]
A
zoologist from Outer Space would immediately classify us as just a third
species of chimpanzee, along with pygmy chimp of
-- Jared Diamond. [1][23]
Genes are simply chemicals that
direct the combination of more chemicals.
Edward Tatum and George Wells Beadle investigated the transmission of
hereditary characteristics of genes and proved that particular genes are
responsible for particular enzymes, and therefore all biochemical processes are
regulated by genes. For their work on
genetics, they shared the 1958 Nobel Prize in physiology or medicine with
Joshua Lederberg. For over 400 years,
we've known that genes drive behavior:
"Dogs provide a dramatic
yet familiar example of genetic variability within species. Despite their great variability in size and
physical appearance, they are all members of the same species. Dogs also illustrate within-species genetic
effects on behavior. Although physical
differences are most obvious, dogs have been bred for centuries as much for
their behavior as for their looks. In
1576, the earliest English-language book on dogs classified breeds primarily on
the basis of behavior. For example,
terriers (from terra, which is Latin for "earth") were bred to creep
into burrows to drive out small animals.
Another book, published in 1686, described the behavior for which
spaniels were originally selected. They
were bred to creep up on birds and then spring to frighten the birds into the
hunter's net. With the advent of the
shotgun, different spaniels were bred to point rather than to spring. The author of the 1686 work was especially interested
in temperament: 'Spaniels by Nature are very loving, surpassing all other
Creatures, for in Heat and Cold, Wet and Dry, Day and Night, they will not
forsake their Master'.
"Behavioral
classification of dogs continues today.
Sheepdogs herd, retrievers retrieve, trackers track, and pointers point
with minimal training. Breeds also
differ strikingly in intelligence and in temperamental traits such as
emotionality, activity, and aggressiveness.
The selection process can be quite fine tuned. For example, in
Animal
behavior can be deduced by careful observation and explained by evolution
theory. By carefully observing terriers,
we can deduce that they were selected to creep into burrows. By carefully observing people, we can deduce
they were selected to believe in virtually anything:
"Precisely what we
believe is immaterial; what matters is the kind of behavior it generates. This is why humanity is characterized by such
astonishing diversity in its belief systems.
As far as our genes are concerned, we can believe that the universe is
driven by an overweight fairy on a green cheese bicycle provided that such
belief effectively coerces us into adopting genetically advantageous behavior
in all matters of evolutionary consequence, such as feeding, mating, nurturing,
bonding, and protecting family, tribe, and territory." [xxiii][25]
Even
though scientists pointed out over a hundred years ago that energy -- not money
-- was the source of the capitalists' wealth, economists just didn't have the
genes to give up their beliefs and face the real world. In other words, two million years of evolution
produced an animal that was ideally suited to worship the Market God. [xxiv][26]
Adam
Smith believed that God's divine plan was revealed in a free market: "the
divine being ... contrived and conducted the immense machine of the universe,
so as at all times to produce the greatest possible quantity of
happiness." Economic historian
Deborah Redman explains: "Because
the order of nature is providential, the free market that reflects natural
order also reflects the workings of providence.
In this way the spheres of morality, theology, jurisprudence, and
economics become hostages to nature, so to speak." [xxv][27]
The
first commandment of the Market God (as revealed by Adam Smith): "Every man, as long as he does not
violate the laws of justice, is left perfectly free to pursue his own interests
in his own way, and to bring both his industry and capital into competition
with those of any other man, or order of men."
The
economists didn't have the genes to understand the physics they were struggling
to impersonate:
"[ With the development
of modern physics ] it became possible to see orthodox economic theory for what
it really was: a bowdlerized imitation of nineteenth-century physics...It was
not the methods of science that were appropriated by the early neoclassicals as
it was the appearances of science, for the early neoclassicals possessed a
singularly inept understanding of the physics they so admired... [ Neoclassical economists attempt ] to reduce
all social institutions such as money, property rights, and the market itself
to epiphenomena of individual constrained optimization calculation. All these attempts have failed, despite their
supposed dependence upon mathematical rigor, because they always inadvertently
assume what they aim to deduce...
Conservation principles are the key to the understanding of a
mathematical formulation of any phenomenon, and it has been there that the
neoclassicals have been woefully negligent." [xxvi][28]
"Once one gets the
scorecard straight, then it will become apparent that twentieth-century
neoclassical theory resembles nothing so much as the childŐs game of Mr.
Potatohead -- the fun comes in mixing and matching components with little or no
concern for the coherence of the final profile." [xxvii][29]
Had economists evolved to
understand the first and second laws of thermodynamics, they would have
realized it was just a matter of time until global society entered a period of
chronic energy shortage. Since neither
capital nor labor can create energy, central bankers will soon have no way to
manipulate the economy:
"Increases or decreases
in the level of money supply are thought to influence the level of production
in the economy. However, this is true
only if the 'externals' to the economy -- i.e., sources of energy from outside
of the money circle -- are constant.
When the availability of energy changes, the economy changes in ways not
correctable by manipulations of the money supply." [xxviii][30]
If central bankers try to
stimulate the economy under conditions of chronic energy shortage, they will
create "stagflation" instead:
"High inflation rates can be
explained by the linkages between fuel use and money supply. If the money supply is increased, stimulating
demand beyond levels that can be satisfied by existing fuel supplies, then
prices will rise. This implies that when
the costs of obtaining fuel are high, fiscal and monetary policies may not be
successful in stimulating economic growth." [xxix][31]
The next round of
energy-shortage-induced stagflation will leave central bankers helpless and they
will seek military solutions to their economic problems. This certainly isn't the first time that
faith in the Market God has led to military solutions.
SAME BELIEF
= SAME RESULT
The
true nature of the highly artificial economic organization on which peace
rested becomes of utmost significance to the historian.
-- Karl Polanyi
In
late 1973 the first OPEC oil shock struck, as oil prices quadrupled and the
general inflation indexes shot up to 11 percent. More important, gasoline lines appeared. Waiting in line to buy a basic commodity like
gasoline is something that no American had ever experienced. Shock and irritation were high, but those
lines were like the first small heart attack -- an indication of mortality...
What was worse, economists could pose no solution to the energy problem. Influential professionals, such as Milton
Friedman, predicted that the oil cartel would quickly fall apart. It didn't.
-- Lester Thurow. [xxx][32]
In the 19th century,
economist Hermann Gossen proclaimed:
"It would only frustrate totally or in part the purpose of the
Creator were we to attempt to neutralize [the free market] in total or in part,
as is the intention of some moral codes promulgated by men." And he asks with moral indignation: "How can a creature be so arrogant as to
frustrate totally or partly the purpose of his creator?" [xxxi][33] The economists' faith in
the Market God led to two world wars and sent millions to their deaths.
No other historian has explained
the human suffering caused by failed economic theories as well as Karl Polanyi:
"The origins of the
cataclysm lay in the utopian endeavor of economic liberalism to set up a
self-regulating market system." [p. 29]
"By the fourth quarter
of the nineteenth century, world commodity prices were the central reality in
the lives of millions of Continental peasants; the repercussions of the
"By the end of the
seventies the free trade episode (1846-79) was at an end; the actual use of the
gold standard by
"The breakdown of the
international gold standard was the invisible link between the disintegration
of world economy since the turn of the century and the transformation of a
whole civilization in the thirties.
Unless the vital importance of this factor is realized, it is not
possible to see rightly either the mechanism which railroaded
"The true nature of the
international system under which we were living was not realized until it
failed. Hardly anyone understood the
political function of the international monetary system; the awful suddenness
of the transformation thus took the world completely by surprise... To liberal
economists the gold standard was purely an economic institution; they refused
even to consider it as a part of a social mechanism. Thus it happened that the democratic
countries were the last to realize the true nature of the catastrophe and the
slowest to counter its effects. Not even
when the cataclysm was already upon them did their leaders see that behind the
collapse of the international system there stood a long development within the
most advanced countries which made that system anachronistic; in other words,
the failure of market economy itself still escaped them." [p. 20]
"The transformation came
on even more abruptly than is usually realized. World War I and the postwar
revolutions still formed part of the nineteenth century. The conflict of 1914-18 merely precipitated
and immeasurably aggravated a crisis that it did not create. But the roots of the dilemma could not be
discerned at the time...The dissolution of the system of world economy which
had been in progress since 1900 was responsible for the political tension that
exploded in 1914." [p. 21] [xxxii][34]
Exactly like the economists of
one hundred years ago, and despite millions killed in two world wars by their
mistakes, economists still worship the Market God. Moreover, economists still haven't changed
their inherently defective methodology.
Economists first abstract all
commodities to money -- which of course, obliterates all qualitative
differences between the commodities themselves, and leaves economists uniquely
unqualified to know anything about the commodities they purport to study.
Although economists treat energy
just like any other resource, itŐs not like any other resource. Available energy is the precondition for
all resources -- including more available energy! Because of their total dependence on the
measure of "money", today's most prominent economists are unable to
know the difference between "libraries" and "oil":
"Should we be taking
steps to limit the use of these most precious stocks of society's capital so
that they will still be available for our grandchildren? ... Economists ask,
Would future generations benefit more from larger stocks of natural capital
such as oil, gas, and coal or from more produced capital such as additional
scientists, better laboratories, and libraries linked together by information
superhighways? ... in the long run, oil and gas are not essential." [Nobel Laureate Paul
Samuelson and William Nordhaus] [xxxiii][35]
Talk about an evolutionary
cul-de-sac! The economists' devotion to the
Market God coupled with their innate inability to know the difference between
libraries and oil will lead to a new generation of wars and send billions to
their deaths.
The
next cycle of death will begin when the world experiences a severe oil crunch
in less than ten years (probably less than five, perhaps much less). The crunch will be triggered by a political
upheaval in one or more of the major oil-producing nations, a Muslim backlash
against America's friendship with Israel, OPEC reducing production to make more
profit, or simply the natural -- and inevitable -- "peak" in global
oil production.
Once
the crunch is here, it's too late. The
global economy will go to hell and rational planning will be replaced by crisis
management. With the oil gone, there
is nothing left to work with anyway.
The coming oil
crunch is the best-kept secret in
End
Notes:
[1][1] THE PRIZE: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and
Power, by Daniel Yergin, Joseph Stanislaw (Contributor); Touchstone,
1993 http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0671799320/brainfood.a
[1][2] Richard Duncan's letter to President Clinton is archived
at http://dieoff.com/page172.htm
[1][3] James Madison was the fourth President of the
[1][4] p. 79, IF MEN WERE ANGELS: James Madison & the
Heartless Empire of Reason, by Richard K. Matthews;
[1][5] ibid. p. 84.
[1][6] The net energy
curve was found empirically by Hall, Cleveland and Kaufmann working with
Recent research suggests perverse subsidies total about $1.5 trillion per year
worldwide. This is twice as large as global military spending each year and
three times as much as the international narcotics industry. [ see http://www.websiteworld.co.uk/hot.htm
] Production at financial profit but energy loss is partially due to economic
subsidies.
[1][7] p. 314, GETTING DOWN TO EARTH, by Robert
Costanza et al., Eds.; Island Press, 1996; http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1559635037/brainfood.a
[1][8] OIL AS A FINITE RESOURCE: When Is Global Production Likely
to Peak? by James J. MacKenzie; World Resources Institute, 1996; http://www.wri.org/wri/climate/finitoil/eur-oil.html
[1][9] see http://www.petroconsultants.com
[1][10] THE DEATH OF THE OIL ECONOMY, by Ted Trainer;
Earth Island Journal, Spring 1997; http://dieoff.com/page116.htm
[1][11] p. 87, BEYOND OIL, by John Gever et al., Univ. Pr.
Colorado, 1991; http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0870812424/brainfood.a
[1][12] THE POST-PETROLEUM PARADIGM -- AND POPULATION, by Walter
Youngquist; Population and Environment: A Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies
Volume 20, Number 4, March 1999; http://www.dieoff.com/page171.htm
[1][13] ibid. Pimentel, D. (1998a).
[1][14] THE WORLD PETROLEUM LIFE-CYCLE: Encircling the
[1][15] ISLAM AND LIBERAL DEMOCRACY: Two Visions Of Reformation, by Robin Wright; Journal of Democracy
7.2 (1996) 64-75; http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/rwright.htm
One can make a rough estimate of the stability of Muslim nations
by using Freedom House's list of "free" countries as a proxy for
democracy, and the following list of Muslim countries:
Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Benin, Brunei, Cameroon,
Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Gabon, Gambia, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan,
Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Malaysia, Maldives, Morocco, Mozambique, Nigeria, Oman,
Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey,
UAE, Uzbekistan, Yemen. (Of course, not
all were involved in wars.)
In the last thirty years, Muslim countries (which total 37) were
involved in roughly 27 wars while "free" countries (which total 88)
were involved in about 20 wars (including wars with Muslim countries). http://freedomhouse.org/survey99/country/
http://www.gn.apc.org/peacepledge/wars/war_index.html
[1][16] ENERGY AND HUMAN EVOLUTION, by David
Price, 1995; http://dieoff.com/page137.htm
[1][17] Internal combustion, steam, or gas turbines are called
"heat engines" because they convert fuel into heat, then into
mechanical motion.
[1][18] For a vertical lift: joules = meters X kg X 9.8
[1][19] A typical gasoline engine with a compression ratio of 8:1
cannot exceed a theoretical 45 percent efficiency, in practice might be about
35 percent; for a diesel with 20:1 it's 55 percent, 45 percent; for a turbine
with 30:1 it's 60 percent, 50 percent.
[1][20] p. 132, MORE HEAT THAN LIGHT, by Philip
Mirowski;
[1][21] DANGEROUS CURRENTS: The State of
[1][22] The Biological Basis of Morality, E.O.
[1][23] p. 2, THE THIRD CHIMPANZEE, by Jared Diamond; Harperperennial,
1992; http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0060984031/brainfood.a
[1][24] pp. 58-59. BEHAVIORAL
GENETICS: Third Edition, Plomin et al; Freeman, 1997; http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0716728249/brainfood.a
[1][25] p. 186, THE SPIRIT IN THE GENE: Humanity's
Proud Illusion and the Laws of Nature, by Reg Morrison, Lynn Margulis; Cornell,
1999; http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0801436516/brainfood.a
[1][26] Scientists search for truth by forming statements that can be
tested. If a statement cannot be tested,
then it is not "scientific".
Testable statements are known as "hypotheses" and take the
general form "IF [I do this], THEN [this will occur] ". For example, the hypothesis "IF I drop a
rock, THEN it will fall to the ground" it can be tested to see if it is "false".
In 1934, Sir Karl Popper proposed a criterion of testability, or
falsifiability, for scientific validity.
Scientific theories are hypotheses from which can be deduced statements
testable by observation; if the appropriate experimental observations falsify
these statements, the hypothesis is refuted.
If a hypothesis survives efforts to falsify it, it may be tentatively
accepted. No scientific theory, however,
can be conclusively established.
Popper's mode of thought -- the habit of attempting to prove
oneself wrong -- is the only path to knowledge about the real world.
Evolutionary psychologists have found that humans evolved to
naturally use a "falsification strategy" with respect to the social
world, but use a "confirmation strategy" with respect to the physical
world. Our innate social-world
"falsification strategy" causes us to instinctively reject social
anomalies and attempt to "falsify" claims about the real world that
might jeopardize social beliefs (e.g., the claim that global oil production
will "peak" soon).
On the other hand, our innate physical-world "confirmation
strategy" allows us to defend social constructions of reality (e.g., the
"free market") to the death, even if the ideals they represent are
far from physical reality. The most
notorious example of this "confirmation strategy" was Julian Simon.
"Consider first a phenomenon I call the deontic effect in
human reasoning (Cummins, 1996b, 1996c). Deontic reasoning is reasoning about
rights and obligations; that is, reasoning about what one is permitted,
obligated, or forbidden to do (Hilpinen, 1981; Manktelow & Over,
1991). Deontic reasoning contrasts with
indicative reasoning, which is reasoning about what is true or false. When reasoning about deontic rules (social
norms), humans spontaneously adopt a violation-detection strategy: They look
for cheaters or rule-breakers. In
contrast, when reasoning about the truth status of statements about the world,
they spontaneously adopt a confirmation-seeking strategy. This effect is apparent in the reasoning of
children as young as three years of age (Cummins, 1996a; Harris & Nu–ez,
1996) and has been observed in literally hundreds of experiments on adult
reasoning over the course of nearly thirty years, making it one of the most reliable
effects in the psychological literature (see Cummins, 1996b, 1996c, and
Oaksford & Chapter, 1996 for reviews of this literature)." [pp. 39,
40] THE EVOLUTION OF MIND, by Denise D. Cummins (Editor), Colin Allen (Editor),
[1][27] p. 237, THE RISE OF POLITICAL ECONOMY AS A
SCIENCE, Deborah Redman; MIT, 1997 http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0262181797/brainfood.a
[1][28] p. 6, AGAINST MECHANISM: Protecting Economics from Science, by
Philip Mirowski; Rowman and Littlefield, 1988;
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0847676951/brainfood.a
[1][29] p. 294, Mirowski, 1989
[1][30] H.T. Odum in pp. 204-206, A SURVEY OF
ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS, Krishnan, Harris, and Goodwin, eds., Island Press,
1995; http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1559634111/brainfood.a
[1][31] SUMMARY OF ENERGY AND THE
[1][32] DANGEROUS CURRENTS: The State of
[1][33] p. 45, HUMANIST ECONOMICS: The New Challenge, by Mark Lutz
and Kenneth Lux; Bootstrap Press, 1988; http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0942850068/brainfood.a
Soure: www.dieoff.org